The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
ozelections.com - National Forum's election coverage site
Federal 2004 :: Other Elections :: Contact  :: About 
Join the mailing list

Our Members
The Brisbane Institute
Local Government Association of Queensland
Queensland Univsersity of Technology

Electoral Pendulum

Coalition Seats % swing required to lose Labor Seats % swing required to lose
Murray (Vic) 21.9 Batman (Vic) 25.1
Mitchell (NSW) 21.3 Fowler (NSW) 21.5
Bradfield (NSW) 21.2 Grayndler (NSW) 21.3
Mallee (Vic) 20.9 Wills (Vic) 20.6
Riverina (NSW) 19.9 Gellibrand (Vic) 20.4
O'Connor (WA) 19.1 Scullin (Vic) 20.3
Mackellar (NSW) 16.9 Gorton (Vic) 20.2
Barker (SA) 16.6 Melbourne (Vic) 19.9
Farrer (NSW) 16.4 Watson (NSW) 17.3
Moncrieff (Qld) 16.3 Reid (NSW) 16.9
Berowra (NSW) 15.6 Port Adelaide (SA) 16.0
Maranoa (Qld) 15.4 Maribyrnong (Vic) 15.4
Groom (Qld) 15.1 Chifley (NSW) 15.3
Gwydir (NSW) 14.9 Blaxland (NSW) 15.2
Gilmore (NSW) 14.6 Throsby (NSW) 15.1
Mayo (SA) 14.3 Calwell (Vic) 15.1
Cook (NSW) 14.0 Sydney (NSW) 15.0
Curtin (WA) 13.9 Denison (Tas) 14.3
North Sydney (NSW) 13.2 Prospect (NSW) 12.8
Fadden (Qld) 13.1 Fraser (ACT) 12.7
Warringah (NSW) 12.7 Lalor (Vic) 12.1
McPherson (Qld) 12.2 Perth (WA) 11.2
Fisher (Qld) 11.8 Hotham (Vic) 11.0
Lyne (NSW) 11.2 Hunter (NSW) 10.9
Kooyong (Vic) 10.9 Fremantle (WA) 10.7
Indi (Vic) 10.7 Brand (WA) 10.0
Grey (SA) 10.6 Canberra (ACT) 9.4
Hughes (NSW) 10.4 Kingsford Smith (NSW) 8.9
Wide Bay (Qld) 9.9 Shortland (NSW) 8.8
Hume (NSW) 9.8 Corio (Vic) 8.5
Ryan (Qld) 9.5 Werriwa (NSW) 8.5
Goldstein (Vic) 9.5 Lyons (Tas) 8.2
Fairfax (Qld) 9.2 Franklin (Tas) 8.0
Wannon (Vic) 9.2 Oxley (Qld) 8.0
Menzies (Vic) 8.9 Holt (Vic) 7.9
Parkes (NSW) 8.7 Newcastle (NSW) 6.9
Macquarie (NSW) 8.7 Charlton (NSW) 6.7
Sturt (SA) 8.5 Isaacs (Vic) 6.6
Higgins (Vic) 8.4 Bruce (Vic) 6.5
Dawson (Qld) 8.0 Griffith (Qld) 6.2
Tangney (WA) 8.0 Barton (NSW) 6.0
Wentworth (NSW) 7.9 Braddon (Tas) 6.0
Bennelong (NSW) 7.7 Melbourne Ports (Vic) 5.7
Forrest (WA) 7.6 Cowan (WA) 5.5
Flinders (Vic) 7.4 Capricornia (Qld) 5.5
Boothby (SA) 7.4 Lingiari (NT) 5.3
Casey (Vic) 7.2 Jagajaga (Vic) 5.3
Forde (Qld) 7.0 Lilley (Qld) 4.6
Robertson (NSW) 7.0 Lowe (NSW) 3.8
Macarthur (NSW) 7.0 Bendigo (Vic) 3.6
Pearce (WA) 6.9 Ballarat (Vic) 3.2
Blair (Qld) 6.6 Greenway (NSW) 3.1
Leichhardt (Qld) 6.4 Banks (NSW) 2.9
Moore (WA) 6.0 Chisholm (Vic) 2.7
Aston (Vic) 6.0 Rankin (Qld) 2.4
Dickson (Qld) 6.0 Bass (Tas) 2.1
Lindsay (NSW) 5.5 Swan (WA) 2.0
Corangamite (Vic) 5.4 Bonner (Qld) 1.9
Dunkley (Vic) 5.2 Hasluck (WA) 1.8
Cowper (NSW) 4.7 Stirling (WA) 1.6
Kalgoorlie (WA) 4.3 Kingston (SA) 1.3
Makin (SA) 3.7 Wakefield (SA) 1.3
La Trobe (Vic) 3.7 Brisbane (Qld) 1.0
Petrie (Qld) 3.5
Bowman (Qld) 3.1
McMillan (Vic) 2.9
Page (NSW) 2.8
Gippsland (Vic) 2.6
Moreton (Qld) 2.6
Longman (Qld) 2.5
McEwen (Vic) 2.2
Hinkler (Qld) 2.2
Eden-Monaro (NSW) 1.7
Richmond (NSW) 1.7
Deakin (Vic) 1.6
Herbert (Qld) 1.5
Paterson (NSW) 1.4
Parramatta (NSW) 1.2
Hindmarsh (SA) 1.0 Independents/ Greens Seats % swing required to lose
Adelaide (SA) 0.6 Calare (NSW) 25.0
Canning (WA) 0.4 Kennedy (Qld) 19.1
Dobell (NSW) 0.4 New England (NSW) 8.3
Solomon (NT) 0.1 Cunningham (NSW) 2.2

Legend

Liberal
Labor
National
Independent / Greens
 
 

© The National Forum 2017. All rights reserved.