Electoral Pendulum

Coalition Seats	% swing required to lose	Labor Seats	% swing required to lose
Murray (Vic)	21.9	Batman (Vic)	25.1
Mitchell (NSW)	21.3	Fowler (NSW)	21.5
Bradfield (NSW)	21.2	Grayndler (NSW)	21.3
Mallee (Vic)	20.9	Wills (Vic)	20.6
Riverina (NSW)	19.9	Gellibrand (Vic)	20.4
O'Connor (WA)	19.1	Scullin (Vic)	20.3
Mackellar (NSW)	16.9	Gorton (Vic)	20.2
Barker (SA)	16.6	Melbourne (Vic)	19.9
Farrer (NSW)	16.4	Watson (NSW)	17.3
Moncrieff (Qld)	16.3	Reid (NSW)	16.9
Berowra (NSW)	15.6	Port Adelaide (SA)	16.0
Maranoa (Qld)	15.4	Maribyrnong (Vic)	15.4
Groom (Qld)	15.1	Chifley (NSW)	15.3
Gwydir (NSW)	14.9	Blaxland (NSW)	15.2
Gilmore (NSW)	14.6	Throsby (NSW)	15.1
Mayo (SA)	14.3	Calwell (Vic)	15.1
Cook (NSW)	14.0	Sydney (NSW)	15.0
Curtin (WA)	13.9	Denison (Tas)	14.3
North Sydney (NSW)	13.2	Prospect (NSW)	12.8
Fadden (Qld)	13.1	Fraser (ACT)	12.7
Warringah (NSW)	12.7	Lalor (Vic)	12.1
McPherson (Qld)	12.2	Perth (WA)	11.2
Fisher (Qld)	11.8	Hotham (Vic)	11.0
Lyne (NSW)	11.2	Hunter (NSW)	10.9
Kooyong (Vic)	10.9	Fremantle (WA)	10.7
Indi (Vic)	10.7	Brand (WA)	10.0
Grey (SA)	10.6	Canberra (ACT)	9.4
Hughes (NSW)	10.4	Kingsford Smith (NSW)	8.9
Wide Bay (Qld)	9.9	Shortland (NSW)	8.8
Hume (NSW)	9.8	Corio (Vic)	8.5
Ryan (Qld)	9.5	Werriwa (NSW)	8.5
Goldstein (Vic)	9.5	Lyons (Tas)	8.2
Fairfax (Qld)	9.2	Franklin (Tas)	8.0
Wannon (Vic)	9.2	Oxley (Qld)	8.0
Menzies (Vic)	8.9	Holt (Vic)	7.9
Parkes (NSW)	8.7	Newcastle (NSW)	6.9
Macquarie (NSW)	8.7	Charlton (NSW)	6.7
Sturt (SA)	8.5	Isaacs (Vic)	6.6
Higgins (Vic)	8.4	Bruce (Vic)	6.5
Dawson (Qld)	8.0	Griffith (Qld)	6.2
Tangney (WA)	8.0	Barton (NSW)	6.0
Wentworth (NSW)	7.9	Braddon (Tas)	6.0
Bennelong (NSW)	7.7	Melbourne Ports (Vic)	5.7
Forrest (WA)	7.6	Cowan (WA)	5.5
Flinders (Vic)	7.4	Capricornia (Qld)	5.5
Boothby (SA)	7.4	Lingiari (NT)	5.3
Casey (Vic)	7.2	Jagajaga (Vic)	5.3
Forde (Qld)	7.0	Lilley (Qld)	4.6
Robertson (NSW)	7.0	Lowe (NSW)	3.8
Macarthur (NSW)	7.0	Bendigo (Vic)	3.6
Pearce (WA)	6.9	Ballarat (Vic)	3.2
Blair (Qld)	6.6	Greenway (NSW)	3.1
Leichhardt (Qld)	6.4	Banks (NSW)	2.9
Moore (WA)	6.0	Chisholm (Vic)	2.7
Aston (Vic)	6.0	Rankin (Qld)	2.4
Dickson (Qld)	6.0	Bass (Tas)	2.1
Lindsay (NSW)	5.5	Swan (WA)	2.0
Corangamite (Vic)	5.4	Bonner (Qld)	1.9
Dunkley (Vic)	5.2	Hasluck (WA)	1.8
Cowper (NSW)	4.7	Stirling (WA)	1.6
Kalgoorlie (WA)	4.3	Kingston (SA)	1.3
Makin (SA)	3.7	Wakefield (SA)	1.3
La Trobe (Vic)	3.7	Brisbane (Qld)	1.0
Petrie (Qld)	3.5
Bowman (Qld)	3.1
McMillan (Vic)	2.9
Page (NSW)	2.8
Gippsland (Vic)	2.6
Moreton (Qld)	2.6
Longman (Qld)	2.5
McEwen (Vic)	2.2
Hinkler (Qld)	2.2
Eden-Monaro (NSW)	1.7
Richmond (NSW)	1.7
Deakin (Vic)	1.6
Herbert (Qld)	1.5
Paterson (NSW)	1.4
Parramatta (NSW)	1.2
Hindmarsh (SA)	1.0	Independents/ Greens Seats	% swing required to lose
Adelaide (SA)	0.6	Calare (NSW)	25.0
Canning (WA)	0.4	Kennedy (Qld)	19.1
Dobell (NSW)	0.4	New England (NSW)	8.3
Solomon (NT)	0.1	Cunningham (NSW)	2.2

Legend

	Liberal
	Labor
	National
	Independent / Greens